Iran unlikely to play trump card and fall into Netanyahu’s trap – for now

Opinion: In late July the Iran-led ‘resistance axis’ suffered the most significant blow to its leadership ranks since the 2020 United States assassination of influential Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani.
First, Fuad Shukr was killed in a drone attack in southern Beirut on July 30. Shukr was second in rank only to Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, the long-time leader of Hezbollah.
Hours later Hamas’ top leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran to complete a staggering blow to the resistance axis hierarchy.
The lethally efficient strikes demonstrated Israel’s region-wide operational reach and transmitted a message that none of its enemies are safe – a message that is also sinking in on the home front.
Many Israelis are asking how their government is capable of such ‘surgical’ covert long-range strikes but cannot locate and rescue the 115 remaining hostages in Gaza?
Or for that matter, why it couldn’t quickly find and eliminate the Gaza-based masterminds of the October 7 massacre without the colossal collective punishment of Palestinian lives and infrastructure?
Why this brinkmanship by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with the region now teetering on the precipice? There are several possible factors to consider starting with simple opportunism.
The Israelis have vowed to hunt down all those it saw as responsible for October 7. Therefore, Haniyeh, despite the fact he was chief negotiator in ceasefire and hostage negotiations, was always at the top of this list.
However, he was out of reach in Qatar under Doha and Washington’s indirect protection. But the moment he left that bubble to attend the inauguration of Iran’s newly ‘elected’ president he was fatally exposed.
Another possible scenario is that the strikes against Shukr and Haniyeh were simply part of a joint retaliation for the alleged Hezbollah missile strike against the town of Majdal Shams, where 12 young Arab-Druze Israeli citizens were killed. 
A third, and most troubling, scenario is that this strike was a second concerted attempt to provoke Iran into a direct military confrontation with Israel and the US. The first attempt was in April when the Israeli Air Force struck the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, Syria.
By keeping the situation inflamed, Netanyahu expands the decision-making circle regarding Israel’s security. This ensures that if there is any intention to hold him accountable, it would require holding everyone accountable or letting them all go, thereby ensuring his impunity.
Rhetorically at least, the latest gambit of Netanyahu has been successful. Iran has vowed massive retribution but, significantly, has stated openly that the attack against Haniyeh on Iranian soil could not have happened without US support, thus setting the stage for US-Iran confrontation if Iran retaliates.
What may come next?
In the short term, events could lead in one of two directions: a regional war engulfing Lebanon and then spiralling further into the region; or, more likely, a strategic but nerve-wracking pause.
Which one depends mostly on the calculus of the Iranian leadership in consultation with its allies Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Al-Houthis in north-west Yemen.
It is noteworthy that the initial response of Iran was to turn to the UN Security Council with a strongly worded letter decrying the flagrant violation of Iranian sovereignty.
This shows the Iranian leadership – deeply unnerved by the capability of Israel – is seeking shelter in the international community (which in the current international climate is no shelter at all).
The Iranians, shaken as they may be, will know that now is precisely the wrong time to seek vengeance, especially via conventional forces where they have a large qualitative disadvantage vis-a-vis Israel and the US.
Iran’s trump card remains Hezbollah with its huge arsenal of rockets, missiles and fighters battle hardened from fighting in Syria; but they will only get to play this card once and the time to do this is not when the US, Israel, and their ‘silent’ Arab autocrat regional partners are on maximum alert.
In short, the Iranians should have too many wiles to be drawn into the trap set by Netanyahu. More likely, as was the case after the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the Iranians will bide their time and strike when and in a manner that could make October 7 look minimalist by comparison.
Yet, the complex and intensely stressed climate mean that logical calculations – cynical as they may be – may not determine outcomes.
Iran is led by an ailing octogenarian and a shadowy group of powerful, unelected clerics who are busy jockeying for absolute power.
Emerging reports that dozens of high-ranking security and intelligence officials have been arrested in Tehran in connection to the Haniyeh assassination, indicate the regime may well be crumbling at its core.
Forget the new ‘reformist’ president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who has no real power. The purpose of his election was to soften Iran’s international image as well as to hold back a rising internal wave of dissent.
The same applies to Israel, which is at war with itself as well as the resistance axis – a dynamic that requires closer observation. Crucially the country is led by a prime minister whose decision-making is steadily proving correct the theory that he seeks endless war at any cost in order to save himself.
Though logic dictates that escalation will not occur in the short term, the chaotic situation among political elites at the two poles of this crisis, Iran and Israel, means anything is possible.